Sedona Monthly Column October 2026 Issue – Roy E. Grimm, PhD
Not all of Sedona’s real estate is having the same year, and that divergence tells us something important about who’s actually buying here. When we compare year over year from 2024-2025, the clearest winner has been the middle of our market. Homes priced between $1M and $2M saw closed sales volume jump more than 26%, from $215 million to $271.1 million, with 194 versus 162 closed sales year over year. Median Record Sales Price (MRSP) in that band climbed nearly 5%, to $1,350,000, with a median sold price per square foot of $526 (+4%). Fewer sellers had to blink: 31% of closings needed a price reduction, down from 36%, and the median cumulative days on market decreased to 52 (-23%). This segment is largely supported by retirees cashing out, investors, and serious second-home buyers. It’s Sedona’s deepest, most liquid price tier of our market.
The story looks different at the top and bottom. Under $1 million, the market was essentially flat, with closings up just under 2% and MRSP down about 1.7% to $780,000. Nearly half of sellers (48%) had to cut their price. That segment isn’t seeing the same appetite or appreciation, and is more susceptible to changes in macroeconomics such as interest rates. Meanwhile, the 3M luxury tier posted more closed sales (53 versus 49) but softer pricing: MRSP dropped to $2,250,000 (-4.3%), and sold price per square foot down to $614 (-7.7%). The encouraging wrinkle here: homes in this bracket are selling closer to what they’re asking and faster. Only 25% of sellers reduced their price (-45%), and cumulative days on market dropped to 56 (-44%). This tells us sellers at the top have gotten smarter about where to price from the outset rather than chasing the market down.
The other divide worth watching is HOA versus non-HOA. Non-HOA properties, which in Sedona overlap heavily with our short-term rental inventory and second-home stock, posted a MRSP of $1,249,000, nearly 22% higher than the $1,025,000 MRSP in HOA communities. Non-HOA homes also moved faster, with 61% closing within 60 days compared to 46% in HOA neighborhoods, where more than a third sat 91 days or longer. Just 35% of non-HOA sellers cut price, versus 41% of HOA sellers.
None of this is an accident. Sedona is a highly discretionary market. We don’t have a large base of buyers who need to move here for a job; we have people who want to be here, whether for a primary residence, a vacation home, or an investment property that can operate as a short-term rental.
For sellers, the message is straightforward: price realistically in the luxury tier, and if you’re marketing a non-HOA property, expect both speed and a premium. For buyers, the 2M range remains competitive and the place where you’ll feel the most urgency this year.
