If you were expecting 2026 to burst out of the gate like a thoroughbred, you’re not alone. Early predictions had real estate experts buzzing about a red-hot national spring market — one that would finally shake off the sluggishness of 2024 and 2025, which went down as the slowest years for home sales in nearly two decades. Modest price growth? Yes. Brisk sales volume? Not so much. So the hope was that 2026 would be the year everything changed.
And then reality did what reality does.
According to the National Association of Realtors, February got things off to a promising start nationally, but March and April cooled considerably. (May data isn’t in yet, so stay tuned!) Here in Sedona, we’ve seen a strikingly similar pattern — and a notable slowdown that coincided with the onset of the conflict with Iran, which rattled consumer confidence across the board.
But before you spiral into a real estate existential crisis, here are two words to hold onto: nuance and resilience.
Yes, Sedona’s housing supply has climbed 14% this spring compared to the same period in 2025. But here’s the plot twist — pending home sales are also up 14% over the same stretch. That’s not a struggling market; that’s a balanced one. Buyers are out there, and they’re pulling the trigger. Over the past three years, inventory has been steadily climbing back toward the healthy pre-pandemic levels we saw in 2017, 2018, and 2019. (Remember the pandemic frenzy? Razor-thin inventory, multiple frantic offers, and shell-shocked buyers? Fun for sellers, exhausting for everyone else — and not a sustainable market dynamic by any stretch.)
This gradual return to balance is actually great news. Healthy inventory levels tend to support stable, long-term price growth rather than the boom-and-bust whiplash we’d all rather forget. And prices in Sedona? Still holding strong with a median recorded sales price of (MRSP) $1,125,000 (a 7% increase in MRSP compared to 2025 in late April). This market has proven it doesn’t rattle easily.
Buyer demand generally hinges on three key factors: consumer confidence, mortgage rates, and the stock market. None of those are singing at full volume right now, which explains the tempered activity. But “tempered” is a long way from “troubled.”
Looking ahead, there’s genuine reason for optimism, as there is a strong uptick in pending sales compared to 2025. We’re anticipating a summer sales bump — a continuation of the spring selling season that stretches into the warmer months. Sound familiar? It should. In 2025, when tariffs hit and temporarily froze the market mid-spring, Sedona bounced back to deliver one of the strongest June sales months on record. History, it seems, has a way of rhyming.
So if you’re watching the market from the sidelines, know this: Sedona real estate remains fundamentally sound. The road ahead looks steady, resilient, and — if last summer was any indication — maybe even a little exciting.
