Roy E. Grimm, PhD – SMM Feb/March 2026 Issue
The 2025 Sedona real estate market was a touch and go year for home sales marked by periods of strong sales activity interspersed with intervals of slow movement from buyers. The spring market started off very strong, quickly outpacing sales in 2024 only to come to a screeching halt. Whether it was coincidence or perhaps buyers truly were sensitive to the tariff news, there is no question that the economic uncertainty in late spring affected the housing market and made many buyers hit “pause” on their search. In April 2025, which is typically one of our busiest sales months, single family homes in Sedona and VOC were down 11% in total sales volume year over year (149 sales in 2025 versus 168 in 2024).
However, this all turned around come early summer, with June sales resembling similar ferocity to the pandemic days when homes were getting snapped up left and right. June saw a large sales bump: up 31 percent from May and 11 percent higher than June 2022, 2023, and 2024. In an even more significant change, July 2025 sales exceeded July 2024 sales by 40 percent.
However, this all turned around come early summer, with June sales resembling similar ferocity to the pandemic days when homes were getting snapped up left and right. June saw a large sales bump: up 31 percent from May and 11 percent higher than June 2022, 2023, and 2024. In an even more significant change, July 2025 sales exceeded July 2024 sales by 40 percent.
Late summer sales saw a slowdown typical of our selling season, with only 21 single family homes being sold in September. However, there seemed to be a relative rally come October and November. The median recorded sales price was 4% higher in 2025 than 2024, though the average price per square foot stayed relatively stable between the two years ($523 in 2025 versus $525 in 2024).
We believe this rally resulted from a confluence of increased consumer confidence, lower mortgage rates, and buyer’s strategic tax planning. 10 year Treasury yields dropped below 4% briefly but lately are staying above that (4% treasury bond yield translates roughly to a 6% mortgage rate). The Fed may or may not do another 0.25% rate reduction—which is only one of the factors affecting the 10-year Treasury yields and the mortgage rates. Many believe that mortgage rates under 6% would greatly increase buyer activity and create another bull market in real estate. But if inflation stays high, 10-year Treasury yields will not come down, regardless of the Fed’s interest rate.
In addition, at the end of 2025, many buyers were scooping up properties to take advantage of the new 100% bonus depreciation on investment properties. This was another driving factor that led to our end-of-the-year boost in sales.
Looking ahead to 2026, the National Association of Realtors predicts a 14% surge in home sales nationally and modest price gains of 1–4%. In Sedona, strong sales at the end of the year indicate that we will have a strong spring selling season, though we anticipate it still will be a relatively balanced market with perhaps a slight seller advantage.
